Gary Gibson
8/30/23
5 games remaining in the NWSL regular season for each club. Maximum of 15 points to be had. This is a look at current standings and projecting out who may make the playoffs. Last season I correctly predicted it would take 33 points to make the playoffs as the 6 seed. Using that as a guide until proven otherwise we'll look at what it will take and how likely your favorite team gets there.
Last season's shield winner the Reign reached a total of 40 points. Which every team based on points per match will fail to meet. The table is so tight this season and with very small margin of error. No team is pulling away from the pack and that is going to lead to a thrilling conclusion to the 2023 NWSL season.
#1 Portland Thorns
Current points: 29
Points per match: 1.71
Points to 33: 4
Minimum results to get there: 1 win and 1 draws or 4 draws.
Max points: 44
Projected points based on points per match: 37.5
Thoughts: Away at 2 teams below the line (barely) with 3 home games in the row against top 6 teams. Drawing Washington in the dying minutes put a big dent in their shield hopes. Possibly losing Smith is a huge blow. even for this deep and talented team.
#2 Courage
Current points: 27
Points per match: 1.59
Points to 33: 6
Minimum results to get there: 2 wins or 1 win and 3 draws
Max points: 42
Projected points based on points per match: 34.95
Thoughts: A very tough final 5. 3 games on the road. first up is Gotham FC who dominated the Courage last time out and they will be facing them without Fox. Points are always a premium and they may rue not beating the lowly Red Stars in the end.
#3 San Diego Wave
Current points: 27
Points per match: 1.59
Points to 33: 6
Minimum results to get there: 2 wins or 1 wins and 3 draws
Max points: 42
Projected points based on points per match: 33
Thoughts: The only top 6 team to get a win. A win against an opponent they have not beaten before. 3 home games left out of 5 games and only 2 against top 6 opponents. But every team besides one has a realistic chance to make the playoffs. 2 of last three games are against the current top 2 teams.
#4 Gotham FC
Current points: 26
Points per match: 1.53
Points to 33: 7
Minimum results to get there: 2 wins and 1 draws or 1 win and 4 draws.
Max points: 41
Projected points based on points per match: 33.65
Thoughts: 3 home games and 2 away games against current 1 and 2 ranked. Gotham has been dominating statistically but snake bitten a bit lately in front of net. The return of Williams, Mewis and the inclusion of Esther Gonzalez should help. Have to get 4 more points over 5 games than Portland. Or 3 points and make up a 12 goal differential.
#5 Washington Spirit
Current points: 26
Points per match: 1.53
Points to 33: 7
Minimum results to get there: 2 wins and 1 draws or 1 win and 4 draws.
Max points: 41
Projected points based on points per match: 33.65
Thoughts: 3 home games left. The last 4 matches are a gauntlet of top teams fighting for the shield. If Washington wants to make a run at the shield, they have to pick up all 3 points against Chicago. They'll probably make the playoffs.
This is probably the shield threshold line.
#6 OL Reign
Current points: 24
Points per match: 1.41
Points to 33: 9
Minimum results to get there: 3 wins or 2 wins and 3 draws.
Max points: 39
Projected points based on points per match: 31.05
Thoughts: the only top 6 team not to get a point this weekend. A tough road lies ahead, considering they will need squad rotation as they also challenge for the challenge cup. That is an extra 2 games on the slate. Orlando, their next opponent, away, can put OL below the line with a win. A very precarious position to be in.
#7 Orlando Pride
Current points: 22
Points per match: 1.29
Points to 33: 11
Minimum results to get there: 3 wins and 2 draws or 4 wins.
Max points: 37
Projected points based on points per match: 28.45
Thoughts: As good a chance as anyone to make the playoffs. The first matchup against OL is a 6 pointer. A win puts them above the line. The matchup against the resurgent Angel City could be the make or break match.
#8 Racing Louisville
Current points: 21
Points per match: 1.24
Points to 33: 12
Minimum results to get there: 4 wins
Max points: 36
Projected points based on points per match: 27.2
Thoughts: No easy matches left. Except for 1 match against Chicago.
This is probably the playoff contention line.
#9 Angel City
Current points: 21
Points per match: 1.24
Points to 33: 12
Minimum results to get there: 4 wins
Max points: 36
Projected points based on points per match: 27.2
Thoughts: If anyone can pull off a miracle it's Angel City who is undefeated under interim coach Becki Tweed stretching to 9 games. Would have to make up 3 points and +7 goal differential or 4 points on OL Reign and contend with Orlando and Racing. Hard to do in 5 games.
#10 Houston Dash
Current points: 20
Points per match: 1.18
Points to 33: 13
Minimum results to get there: 4 wins and 1 draw.
Max points: 35
Projected points based on points per match: 27.08
Thoughts: Needing to overcome at least 4 points on OL and +5 differential. Basically have to win out to have a shot. 3 teams between then and 6th place.
#11 Kansas City
Current points: 19
Points per match: 1.12
Points to 33: 14
Minimum results to get there: 5 wins
Max points: 34
Projected points based on points per match 24.9
Thoughts: Focus on the Challenge Cup. Get that money. Best shot at any hardware. Will most likely be eliminated this weekend. Needs to win out.
#12 Chicago Red Stars
Current points: 17
Points per match: 1
Points to 33: 16...
Minimum results to get there: Impossible.
Max points: 34
Projected points based on points per match: 22
Thoughts: the longest of long shots.